Writeoff Forgiveness and Goodwill (ConocoPhillips)

September 15, 2009

Benjamin Graham wrote in Security Analysis that a great deal of financial analysis involves recasting financial reports to get a full sense of a firm’s baseline ability to produce earnings. A lot of the process involves removing nonrecurring or irrelevant events from a single year’s results, as we did with LINE’s profits on its derivatives. […]

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The Danger of Stock Screeners (Linn Energy LLP)

September 9, 2009
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A stock screener is a useful toy for an investor. In most markets bargains cannot be found by checking stocks at random, and a good screen is a good way to narrow the field. However, a screen is only a first step; a poster at a forum I visit (the same one who referred me […]

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Quick update on the USEC loan guarantee

August 4, 2009

It now appears that the Department of Energy has agreed to defer a ruling on USEC’s loan guarantee application until “specific technological and financial goals have been met. The general consensus before the announcement of the pending denial a week ago was that the legislation for the loan guarantee program was tailor-made to allow USEC […]

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The (not) unthinkable has happened (USEC)

July 28, 2009
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Remember what I said about the dangers of event-driven trading? USEC has been denied the loan guarantee for their centrifuge enrichment plant construction, for reasons of concerns about commercial viability (which is unusual because the technology is already in use  by other uranium enrichers) . As a result, the company seems to be making good […]

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Calling the government’s bluff (USEC)

July 16, 2009

Event driven trading is never as simple as people think. The concept is simple enough: identify an event that is likely to change the price of a stock, determine the price of a stock after the event does or does not occur, determine the probability of the event occurring, and take a position accordingly. Of […]

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