Recency Bias and Cyclical Companies, and also Assessing International Paper’s Restructuring

January 8, 2012

In my last article discussing Black Box, part of my positive opinion of the company was its performance in 2009. This led me to consider how far back into a company’s earnings history we should go. Ben Graham in his Security Analysis recommends at least a decade, but that runs into the situation that a [...]

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What should we do about changes in working capital when calculating free cash flow

June 22, 2011

In my last article at seekingalpha.com on the dramatically low price of Best Buy (BBY), it was pointed out to me by a commenter that I have a nonstandard definition of operating cash flow. Specifically, when calculating a company’s operating cash flow, and consequently free cash flow, I ignore changes in working capital as a [...]

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Lodgenet (LNET) – Unattractive despite very high free cash flow

April 21, 2011

As you may know, my favorite metric for evaluation a company is its ability to generate free cash flows. However, it is dangerous to focus entirely on that issue to the exclusion of other important aspects of a company. I will explore this issue by examining Lodgenet (LNET), a company with free cash flow through [...]

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Why Fructivore

May 30, 2009

Why fructivore? Fructivore means fruit-eater,and when investing the wisest approach is to pick the low-hanging fruit. In other words, go for the easy money, the instruments that are on sale, and leave the rest on the table. Of course, that is the goal of any risk-averse investor, but a goal does not equate to a [...]

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